Independent literature estimates place geological hydrogen at a materially lower potential production cost than grey hydrogen (made from natural gas, roughly US$1 to US$2 per kg) or green hydrogen (made by splitting water with electricity, roughly US$3 to US$8 per kg), at potentially under US$1 per kg.
Indicative production cost by source (US$ per kg)
These are independent estimates for the resource type, presented as sector context. They are not Luma production costs. Because hydrogen is a commodity, a low-cost source matters, and early movers enter at the lowest-priced point on the cost curve.
Geological hydrogen remains an emerging resource, not a proven commercial industry. Outside one long-running site in Mali, it has not been produced commercially at scale. That is both the promise and the early-stage risk.